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Browser based online chat software www.bluesparks.com Basic Articles
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Introduction to GamblingThis document will diverge on the issue of gambling theory and how it is applied in mathematics and science. The objective is quite simply how luck works using numbers and ideas that could be practically applied in gambling type situations. The mathematical side of gambling is called 'Probability', it is the calculation of chance that is applied to everything from flipping a coin to a roulette table and blackjack. Probability calculates the chance that a certain outcome will happen in the form of a simple number. The results of a probability calculation are represented as a number between 0 and 1. A probability of 0 means that something will never happen by chance and a probability of 1 means that an occurence is certain to happen by chance. The closer the number to 1 the higher the probability that it will happen and the closer it is to zero the smaller the probability that it will happen. For example NASA scientists have stated that the probability of finding aliens in outerspace is 1, that means that there are definitely aliens in outerspace. The probability that a person can destroy the world by hitting his hand against a wall is zero, that means it can never happen. How is probability calculated ? Imagine tossing a coin that has two sides, heads and tails. The first time the coin is tossed the chance (probability) that the outcome will be heads is half and the chance that it will be tails is also half, i.e. the chance that the result is tails is equal to the chance that it is tails and therefore it is very difficult to predict the outcome. However let us toss a coin twice instead of once. If we toss the coin twice and expect to get two heads in a row the chance of that happening is 1/2 x 1/2 which is 1/4. Three heads in a row calculates to 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 equals 1/8. so we see that the chance that we can get 3 heads in a row or similarly 3 tails in a row is quite small compared to the alternative. We could say that we have a chance of getting 3 tails in a row represented by the number 1/8 which is not likely to happen compared to an alternative represented by the number (1 - 1/8)= 7/8. Since 7/8 is a lot closer to one I would bet that someone would not be able to get three tails in a row !! So to recap the probability of the same recursive outcome progressively decreases with the number of attempts i.e. multiply everything together. We saw how we could multiply probabilities to predict the outcome of a series of events like the tossing of a coin. But what about the other outcome possibilities ? If the probability of getting two tails in a row is 1/4 let us calculate the probability of getting a combination of heads and tails. The chance of getting a heads the first time is 1/2 and the chance of getting tails on the second attempt is likewise 1/2 so they are multiplied and the chance of getting a heads followed by a tails is 1/4. Similarly for achieving a tails first followed by heads (1/4). But to calculate the probability of EITHER one of these combinations happening we add them together 1/4 + 1/4 = 1/2. From that we can see that we have a much higher probability of getting a combination of heads and tails rather than two heads in a row or two tails in a row (1/4). Now let us apply this practically to an imaginary gambling scenario involving a coin. If you bet $10 on heads and lose with tails you know that the chance of getting tails again is low, i.e 1/4 and the chance of anything else i.e heads is higher (1-1/4) so instead of betting only another $10 you would bet with $20 on heads because you know it's more likely to show up the second time. If you lose that bet again with a result of tails then you should bet even more on the chance of heads showing up eg. $40 because the chance of getting tails is now 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/8 compared to the chance of anything else i.e heads 1-1/8 = 7/8. Similarly at a roulette table, if you lose the first time on black you know you're more probable to win the next time on black so you double your bet and if you lose a further time on that a much higher bet is advised yet on black because you will have a very high chance of 'not getting red'. The higher the number of failed attempts the higher the chance that you will win on the lost color in the next round. This provides an easy formula for success. This theory can be applied to any form of gambling such as dice or a deck of cards. The only thing that changes in the calculations is the resulting number representing the probability of the outcome. we saw the use of 1/2 for each face of a coin, similarly we can apply 1/6 to each roll of a dice or 1/52 to each unique card in a deck. Let us complicate things a little now and add more factors to the equation as in a roulette table. When betting you would want to concentrate your efforts to promote a very good result. So if you bet on black you would also want to bet on numbers that are red, this way you ADD to the probability that will win, and adding will give you a number closer to 1 with a higher chance of winning. If you can identify rare occurences you can take advantage of them to win big. e.g if the results in a roulette table are black six times in a row you know you have an extremely high chance that red will show up in the next turn so naturally you should bet more on it. If it still shows up black the next time you should bet even more on it as you nearly know you will win. In effect turning a loss into a potential win. How does this apply to online casinos. Online casinos use special software that selects an outcome in the game of choice similarly on the theory of chance. Even though these events are happening all inside a computer the laws of probability still apply as they are of pure mathematics and thus applicable to any situation even if it is all inside a computer box. An exception of course would be if the online casino decides to cheat and tells its software to select losers more than winning numbers, that is where the regulations come into force where online casinos are overseen by independent bodies to guarantee their fair play. Try out this theory with one of the following online casinos which give you $10 free when you sign up.
The ideas on this page were taken from the scientific gambling site Gambling Tip |
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